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How will Russia redraw post-Soviet borders? In the wake of recent Russian expansionism, political risk expert Agnia Grigas illustrates how—for more than two decades—Moscow has consistently used its compatriots in bordering nations for its territorial ambitions. Demonstrating how this policy has been implemented in Ukraine and Georgia, Grigas provides cutting-edge analysis of the nature of Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy and compatriot protection to warn that Moldova, Kazakhstan, the Baltic States, and others are also at risk.
- Sales Rank: #650062 in eBooks
- Published on: 2016-02-16
- Released on: 2016-02-01
- Format: Kindle eBook
Review
"Scarcely any aspect of Russian foreign policy has received more attention and less serious exploration than Russia's maneuvering in former parts of the Soviet Union. Grigas takes a sizable step toward rectifying that imbalance by carefully tracing Moscow's approach to so-called compatriots--ethnic Russians, Russian speakers, and those who simply identify with Russia--in these now independent states." (Robert Legvold, Foreign Affairs May/June 2016)
"Incisive, topical, and well argued—a must-read for anyone interested in the security of Europe's front-line states."—Edward Lucas, Senior Editor, The Economist (Edward Lucas)
"A brilliant analysis of the soft and hard power which Russia is using to reassert influence beyond its post-Soviet borders. Agnia Grigas's explication of Russia's strategy should be carefully studied in foreign affairs, military, and intelligence offices in Washington, DC, EU capitals, and the former Soviet States. An effective response requires such understanding."—Derek Shearer, former US Ambassador to Finland, Chevalier Professor of Diplomacy and Director of the McKinnon Center for Global Affairs, Occidental College (Derek Shearer)
"Beyond Crimea is a manual for imperial expansion 21st-century style: ramping up propaganda, handing out passports, and preparing in advance to seize opportunities. Study how it was done to learn how to avert the next time."—Jack Snyder, Robert and Renée Belfer Professor of International Relations, Columbia University (Jack Snyder)
"Anyone interested in Putin's foreign policy should read this deeply researched, superbly analyzed account of a deliberate, long-standing strategy of imperial aggrandizement whose tragic and bloody consequences we now see across the peripheries of Russia. Grigas succeeds brilliantly in laying out the phases of this strategy."—Stephen Blank, Senior Fellow, American Foreign Policy Council (Stephen Blank)
"This well-researched study sheds revealing light on Moscow's use of the Russian diaspora to increase influence and leverage over neighbouring states."—Alex Pravda, Emeritus Fellow, St. Antony’s College, University of Oxford (Alex Pravda)
“This excellent book lays out the Kremlin’s objectives and tactics in a clear, convincing way. Reading it will help Western policymakers and their publics understand the danger posed by Mr. Putin’s aggressive polices and formulate an appropriate response.”—John E. Herbst, former US Ambassador to Ukraine and Uzbekistan, Director of the Dinu Patriciu Eurasia Center, The Atlantic Council (John Herbst)
“A compelling analysis of the drivers and methods of Moscow’s foreign policy, demonstrating how Russia leverages it compatriots and employs a mix of soft power, disinformation, cyber and hybrid warfare. This book should serve as a wake-up call for Western policy makers and their publics.” —Toomas Hendrik Ilves, President of the Republic of Estonia (Toomas Hendrik Ilves)
"Grigas sheds new light on our understanding of Kremlin’s aims in the post Soviet space. A must read for those seeking to make sense of Putin’s policies in Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, the Baltic States and beyond.”—Michael McFaul, Director of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University (Michael McFaul)
About the Author
Agnia Grigas is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. She lives in Washington, D.C.
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5 of 5 people found the following review helpful.
Expansionism, Russification, Colonization and the Sowing of Ethnic Strife
By Lost John
Agnia Grigas, a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington DC, describes herself as an energy and political risk expert, specializing in Russia, Eastern Europe, and the post-Soviet space. This book concentrates primarily on political risk (although gas and oil have their place, especially in as much as they are exported by Russia and some other post-Soviet states), and the book’s area of interest takes in the entire area formerly occupied by the Soviet Union.
As the title suggests, Grigas’s starting point is Russia’s annexation of Crimea in March 2014. She works backwards from there to examine how Russia was in a position to so quickly and effectively take over what was, and in international law remains, the autonomous Ukrainian republic. She identifies a ‘Russian reimperialization policy trajectory’ that starts with 1) soft power and continues to 2) humanitarian policies, 3) compatriot policies, 4) information warfare, 5) passportization, 6) protection, and finally 7) annexation. Each of these is fully examined, not only with respect to Crimea but to a number of other former Soviet areas. Separate chapters consider Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine; Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania; Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan; and Belarus and Armenia.
There are of course important differences between all of these states, and their current relationship with Russia ranges from outright hostility to almost comfortable accommodation, but all are seen to have been subjected, to a greater or lesser extent, to the earlier stages at least of the reimperialization trajectory.
Crimea is so far the only territory that has been annexed, but the situation in Transnistria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia is of frozen conflict and the conflict in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine is sadly not even frozen. Grigas comments: ‘For Moscow, creating frozen conflicts and breakaway territories is a low-cost, high-return strategy that makes life difficult for its recalcitrant neighbor states and for the EU and NATO.’
Her central argument is that since the 1990s, and particularly since the 2000s, there has been an increasing tendency in Russian foreign policy toward reimperialization of the post-Soviet space. In this, she writes, the Russian Federation is in many respects following in the footsteps of its historical predecessors and will continue to do so, because of the similar ideological, cultural, security and geopolitical drivers that have been rooted in the centuries-long imperial experience of the three empires that have occupied the same Russian political space and territories – the Russian Empire, the Soviet Union and the Russian Federation.
She finds threads of historical continuity in policy between Putin’s era and those of his predecessors going back to the tsarist times of expansionism, Russification, colonization and the sowing of ethnic strife.
The book’s text appears to have been completed in mid-2015. Grigas’s analysis of the current situation with regard to the various countries is of great interest and has not so far been overtaken by events in any important respect. Grigas may be regarded as a Cold Warrior (or a new Cold Warrior), but much of her analysis is difficult to refute. My only criticism is that she pays too little attention to increasing competition for Russia from China (on similar trade, economic support and soft power lines), especially in the Central Asian States.
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